Variations in vapor pressure and standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index since AD 1861 over the western Himalaya in India: inference from tree ring-width records

A regional tree ring-width index chronology prepared from various tree core samples of the western Himalaya has been analyzed in relation to climate fluctuations. The correlation analysis of tree ring chronology shows significant positive correlations with regional rainfall and standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index (SPEI) and negative correlations with temperature and vapor pressure (VP) during the spring season. The correlation coefficients (CCs) of tree ring-width index chronology with rainfall, temperature, SPEI, and VP during 1901–1990 are 0.50, −0.49, 0.65, and −0.51, respectively. All CCs are significant at 0.1% level. The highly significant CCs between tree ring-width index chronology and SPEI indicate that tree growth over the western Himalaya is more sensitive to soil moisture availability than rainfall, whereas the rising VP is found to have a significant moisture stress condition to tree growth by accelerating the evapotranspiration, which is not conducive for the development of tree growth in the region. So, based on the strong association between tree ring-width index chronology and SPEI; the reconstructions of SPEI and VP are developed back to AD 1861, that show the long period of dryness during 1936–1963.     

Response of the Asian summer Monsoons to a high-latitude thermal forcing: mechanisms and nonlinearities

This study investigates mechanisms and nonlinearities in the response of the Asian Summer Monsoons (ASM) to high-latitude thermal forcings of different amplitudes. Using a suite of runs carried out with an intermediate-complexity atmospheric general circulation model, we find that the imposed forcings produce a strong precipitation response over the eastern ASM but a rather weak response over the southern ASM. The forcing also causes a precipitation dipole with wet conditions over the eastern Tibetan Plateau (TP) and dry conditions over the Bay of Bengal (BoB) and southeast Asia. A moderate increase of precipitation along the southern margin of the TP is also produced. Simulations designed to isolate the causal mechanisms show that thermodynamic interactions involving the tropical surface oceans are far less important than the water-vapour feedback for the transmission of information from the high-latitudes to the ASM. Additionally, we assess the nonlinearity of the ASM precipitation response to the forcing amplitude using a novel application of the empirical orthogonal function method. The response can be decomposed in two overlapping patterns. The first pattern represents a precipitation dipole with wet conditions over the eastern TP and dry conditions over BoB, which linearly increases with forcing amplitude becoming quasi-stationary for large forcing amplitudes (i.e. amplitudes leading to Arctic temperature anomalies larger than 10 °C). The second pattern is associated with increased precipitation over the southeastern TP and is nonlinearly dependent on forcing, being most important for intermediate forcing amplitudes (i.e. amplitudes leading to Arctic temperature anomalies between 5 and 10 °C).     

The use of the land-sea warming contrast under climate change to improve impact metrics

A favoured method of assimilating information from state-of-the-art climate models into integrated assessment models of climate impacts is to use the transient climate response (TCR) of the climate models as an input, sometimes accompanied by a pattern matching approach to provide spatial information. More recent approaches to the problem use TCR with another independent piece of climate model output: the land-sea surface warming ratio (φ). In this paper we show why the use of φ in addition to TCR has such utility. Multiple linear regressions of surface temperature change onto TCR and φ in 22 climate models from the CMIP3 multi-model database show that the inclusion of φ explains a much greater fraction of the inter-model variance than using TCR alone. The improvement is particularly pronounced in North America and Eurasia in the boreal summer season, and in the Amazon all year round. The use of φ as the second metric is beneficial for three reasons: firstly it is uncorrelated with TCR in state-of-the-art climate models and can therefore be considered as an independent metric; secondly, because of its projected time-invariance, the magnitude of φ is better constrained than TCR in the immediate future; thirdly, the use of two variables is much simpler than approaches such as pattern scaling from climate models. Finally we show how using the latest estimates of φ from climate models with a mean value of 1.6—as opposed to previously reported values of 1.4—can significantly increase the mean time-integrated discounted damage projections in a state-of-the-art integrated assessment model by about 15 %. When compared to damages calculated without the inclusion of the land-sea warming ratio, this figure rises to 65 %, equivalent to almost 200 trillion dollars over 200 years.     

Automated Approach for Extraction of Oil Spill from SAR Imagery

Oil spill pollution is a major environmental concern since it has most dangerous and hazardous effects on marine environment. Periodic monitoring by detecting oil spills along with its movement, helps in efficient clean-up and recovery operations. Over the past few years, Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) based remote sensing has received considerable attention for monitoring and detecting oil spill due to its unique capabilities to provide wide-area observation in all weather conditions. However, the interpretation of marine SAR imagery is often ambiguous, since it is difficult to separate oil spill from look-alike features. The objective behind our study was to extract probable oil spill candidates automatically from SAR imageries containing oil spill incidences, where new methods based on over-segmentation and amalgamate approach is used for this purpose. The methodology is all about over segmenting the entire image based on its statistics and amalgamating relevant segments at later point of time to represent actual dark features as probable oil spill candidates. Under the dependency on SAR imageries alone, the approach does not take care of the separation of look-alike features which can be addressed subsequently by the consideration of associated synchronous external data resources such as optical data, wind and ocean parameters (Zhao et al. in Opt Express 22(11):13755–13772, 2014; Espedal and Wahl in Int J Remote Sens 20(1):49–65, 1999). The approach is carried out on a set of RISAT-1 imagery containing oil spill incidences and the extracted oil spill areas are in well agreement with the visually interpreted output with kappa coefficient greater than 0.70 and overall classification accuracy greater than 80%.     

Mass Balance Estimation of Dokriani Glacier in Central Indian Himalaya Using Remote Sensing Data

Dokriani Glacier is regarded as one of the important glaciers of Bhagirathi River basin, which fed river Ganges. The length of the glacier is about 4.6 km, and snout elevation is about 4028 m m.s.l. The mass balance of this glacier was calculated using field-based measurements for few years during 1994 to 2000. However, due to remote and poor accessibility, the field-based measurements could not continue; thus, remote sensing-based methods become useful tool to estimate the long-term mass balance of the glacier. In this study, glacier mass balance has been determined using accumulation area ratio (AAR) method. Remote sensing data sets, e.g. Landsat TM, ETM?+?and OLI, have been used to estimate AAR for different years from 1994 to 2014. An attempt has also been made to develop a mathematical relationship between remote sensing-derived AAR and field-observed mass balance data of the glacier. Further, this relationship has been used to estimate mass balance of the glacier for different years using remote sensing-derived AAR. Estimated mass balance was validated from ground-observed mass balance for few years. The field-observed and remote sensing-derived mass balance data are compared and showed high correlation. It has been observed that AAR for the Dokriani Glacier varies from 0.64 to 0.71. Mass balance of the glacier was observed between ??15.54 cm and ??50.95 cm during the study period. The study highlights the application of remote sensing in mass balance study of the glaciers and impact of climate change in glaciers of Central Indian Himalaya.     

On the dynamics of an extreme rainfall event in northern India in 2013

India experienced a heavy rainfall event in the year 2013 over Uttarakhand and its adjoining areas, which was exceptional as it witnessed the fastest monsoon progression. This study aims to explore the causative factors of this heavy rainfall event leading to flood and landslides which claimed huge loss of lives and property. The catastrophic event occurred from 14th to 17th June, 2013 during which the state received 375% more rainfall than the highest rainfall recorded during a normal monsoon season. Using the high resolution precipitation data and complementary parameters, we found that the mid-latitude westerlies shifted southward from its normal position during the intense flooding event. The southward extension of subtropical jet (STJ) over the northern part of India was observed only during the event days and its intensity was found to be increasing from 14th to 16th June. The classical theory of westward tilt of mid-latitude trough with height, which acts to intensify the system through the transfer of potential energy of the mean flow, is evident from analysis of relative vorticity at multiple pressure levels. On analysing the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), negative values were observed during the event days. Thus, the decrease in pressure gradient resulted in decrease of the intensity of westerlies which caused the cold air to move southward. During the event, as the cold air moved south, it pushed the mid-latitude westerlies south of its normal position during summer monsoon and created a conducive atmosphere for the intensification of the system.     

Correlating P-wave Velocity with the Physico-Mechanical Properties of Different Rocks

In mining and civil engineering projects, physico-mechanical properties of the rock affect both the project design and the construction operation. Determination of various physico-mechanical properties of rocks is expensive and time consuming, and sometimes it is very difficult to get cores to perform direct tests to evaluate the rock mass. The purpose of this work is to investigate the relationships between the different physico-mechanical properties of the various rock types with the P-wave velocity. Measurement of P-wave velocity is relatively cheap, non-destructive and easy to carry out. In this study, representative rock mass samples of igneous, sedimentary, and metamorphic rocks were collected from the different locations of India to obtain an empirical relation between P-wave velocity and uniaxial compressive strength, tensile strength, punch shear, density, slake durability index, Young’s modulus, Poisson’s ratio, impact strength index and Schmidt hammer rebound number. A very strong correlation was found between the P-wave velocity and different physico-mechanical properties of various rock types with very high coefficients of determination. To check the sensitivity of the empirical equations, Students t test was also performed, which confirmed the validity of the proposed correlations.     

Estimating time parameters of overland flow on impervious surfaces by the particle tracking method

Abstract

Travel time and time of concentration T_c are important time parameters in hydrological designs. Although T_c is the time for the runoff to travel to the outlet from the most remote part of the catchment, most researchers have used an indirect method such as hydrograph analysis to estimate T_c. A quasi two-dimensional diffusion wave model with particle tracking for overland flow was developed to determine the travel time, and validated for runoff discharges, velocities, and depths. Travel times for 85%, 95% and 100% of particles arrival at the outlet of impervious surfaces (i.e. T_t85, T_t95, and T_t100) were determined for 530 model runs. The correlations between these travel times and T_c estimated from hydrograph analysis showed a significant agreement between T_c and T_t85. All the travel times showed nonlinear relationships with the input variables (plot length, slope, roughness coefficient, and effective rainfall intensity) but showed linear relationships with each other.

Editor D. Koutsoyiannis; Associate editor S. Grimaldi